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Saturday, April 16, 2011

The Technology Adoption Lifecycle


Interestingly enough.. the concept of the Technology Adoption lifecycle itself is a good example of; The Technology Adoption Lifecycle.. in that the most famous among the technology start-up company, and technology commercialization people generally reference the Bible, or "Crossing the Chasm" written by Geoffrey A. Moore as the generally accepted rule and process.

Where Neal C. Cross, and Bryce Ryan first introduced the concept in 1943, analyzing how much and when farmers used hybrid corn seeds for planting crops.

Then came Joe M. Bohlen, George M. Beal, and Everett M. Rogers 15 years later with "The Diffusion Process", and "Validity of the concept of stages in the adoption process"

5 years later, Everett M. Rogers wrote the book Diffusion of Innovations.

29 years later, Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers was written by "Geoffrey A. Moore".

The demand for the book, was two-fold in the early 1990s there weren't many or any books, on how one might go about marketing a technology product, and #2, as Crossing the Chasms first introduction stated: If Bill Gates can be a Billionaire. There was much interest in how to become an overnight millionaire in 1996 there were 140 venture capital funds raised, and 401 venture capital funds in 2000.

Bill Gates caused a rash of Financially motivated investors, those with MBA's and Finance degrees to enter the field of Venture Capitalism, which was historically held by a savvy tech entrepreneur that actually knew his space, and would invest in new companies that were at the beginning of the curve, and know just when to sell or when and where the peak of the curve happened. Today we see the result of a Financially Heavy Industry attempting to pick tech winners, Last years Venture Capital Average return was 4% to their investors. The art of picking winners is simply not feasible to be scaled, there are only windows for one winner, and one-semi-winner in each new space, 3-4 others maintain and pick away at the scraps, all other companies die.

To Geoffrey Moore's credit he did "ADD" the chasm, which is real and a significant hurdle for even the most "connected" companies to cross depending on how ready the "market" is to accept the new way of doing something, as well as truly articulate the operating and market environment of a new technology companies commercialization process.

First and Foremost all of the below describe people who are working in a Mid to Large Company, a real customer for a new technology.

Innovators - The Technology Enthusiasts

These are always incredibly intelligent MS, or PhD, Scientists, stuck away in the corner of some lab somewhere, who happened to run into the new company on the internet or would actually walk over to the one table at the conference to take a look at the prototype, or take a call from someone with an interesting new idea, based on understanding the science, and numbers around the new product, and the problem sets that they are dealing with in the lab. Instinctively they can smell if something looks like its going to work, not financially driven, nor do they typically care. I've worked with guys like this who don't cash their paycheck, until someone from the accounting department walks over and reminds them. They typically are a gatekeeper to an Early Adopter.

Early Adopters - The Visionaries,
Visionaries are that very very very rare breed of people who have the insight to match an emerging technology to a strategic opportunity, the temperment to translate that insight into a high-visibility, high risk project. Typically a Program or Project Manager, in the Engineering Group

This is who you want, because they typically work with the Innovators, and understand that the upper management, if not the middle management are complete ludites, wouldn't understand the process or problem sets involved, nor the technology, nor would ever typically field a new company call nor understand what was being described to them, and/or be able to identify the appropriate issue. Even if you understand the problem set and the issue. anyone other than the innovator early adopter truly doesn't care. They are not set up to care, if it is out of their job description, or immediate workload on other items for the day. But the bigger issue is back to Heidegger in the bigger picture in nature and the way of things they are not able to understand.

The Innovators and Early Adopters are the only ones a new company with a new technology can approach.

The Early Majority - The Pragmatists
The Pragmatists are typically the most respected, typically quite, typically very sharp. They are willing to watch and wait for the Early Adopter to fail or succeed closely, if they succeed they are smart enough to suggesting that the company ramp up quickly to the new "proven product, technique, software, material, whatever". Although you have to win them over using bowling pin techniques by showing another similar company has used there products. Once you get in they will keep you as a vendor or among several vendors.They are reasonably price sensitive but will pay a premium for top quality or better services.
Trade shows, magazine, and referneces are required for this group to feel comfortable using.

The Late Majority - The Conservatives (ludites)
This is the Boss who still has the high and tight haircut, refuses to upgrade the computer to any new software, essentially is against any discontinuous innovations. Tradition is more important than progress. The only way that they will use a new product is that they have to to keep up with the rest of the world.

In The Technology and Venture Capital present day situation you will actually find a Finance MBA (as an entrepreneur, just look at the website and if that is what they have as your money investor as background run quickly), pick a president to run a start-up technology company who has run a 10,000+ person business with the assumption that they would be good at being the president of a start-up (as a potential employee, just look at the website and if  that is what thay have as experience, run quickly). A ludite investor paired with a ludite president, means that they are capable of doing one thing, selling the company to another ludite president for some value that is based on technology that none of them understand always before the chasm. The larger company needs a tax deduction, or someother reason than the company is capable of actually growing, and successfully crossing the chasm. then the chances of crossing are slim-to-none. Large companies are incapable of successfully crossing the chasm, due to a large company only handle products that have successfully crossed over the chasm well.

Some references below, from the above blog.

Ryan, Bryce, and Neal C. Gross (1943) “The diffusion of hybrid seed corn in two Iowa communities.” Rural Sociology 8: 15-24. RS(E)
Bohlen, Joe M.; Beal, George M. (May 1957), "The Diffusion Process", Special Report No. 18 (Agriculture Extension Service, Iowa State College) 1: 56–77. 
Beal, George M., Everett M. Rogers, and Joe M. Bohlen (1957) "Validity of the concept of stages in the adoption process." Rural Sociology 22(2):166-168.
Rogers, Everett M. (1962). Diffusion of Innovations, Glencoe: Free Press.
http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/M/William.L.Megginson-1/rwjvcipo.pdf

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