TechCrunch

Monday, April 18, 2011

Much Ado about nothing. The Video Paradigm Change and other entrenched webased services

Everyknow and then someone who doesn't understand how technology is adopted will write an article that says something ridiculous like company b will be the next company a.

To be more exact,  there is alot of talk about facebook expanding into movies, or amazon expanding into tablets with kindle, or a myriad of big companies who have won a space trying to get into another space that historically has never happened and in the future will NEVER happen.

The market accepts one website/technology/brand/product as the choice to do one thing. If that company would like to enter another space it has to do so via purchasing another company, or starting a new brand itself.

Blockbuster - The Video Store - won the video market, and is now dead. due to:
Displacement by Netflix - The Video Mailed to your home - the low end disruption, that moved up to mid-level online disruption, and has solidified itself in peoples mind as the place to go if you would like to have a movie mailed to you, or go online to rent a movie....period. No one else can or should attempt to go after this market, if they do they will fail.

Facebook recently did a deal with Time Warner to stream movies, this will fail, because this is not what people use Facebook, for its the friend and family network, that replaced the tearoom for old ladies to gossip about whats going on in the neighborhood. and replaced the photo-album for trips, and newborn family members etc. the new neighborhood if you will. This is a one trick pony, that have no experience in technology, nor does anyone on their team, so this is a rookie move, which will be followed by another rookie move, and another until they realize they should stick to just buying other websites that have succeeded in their niche like google. go by a map company, or a new online dating site, don't waste your money on doing something that won't work.

Facebook displaced Myspace, because myspace was a good place for bands, and musicians to interact with other artistic sorts, but not the place to share your art with your mom and dad, and uncle sue. Facebook the "look at me im good looking site" gained traction in a low end market displacement "dating" if you will but had all the bells and whistles to go up the value chain quickly to accomplish the look at my neighboorhood, and what little suzie is doing on friday night, so the tearoom grannies, and all the other arts and crafters grabbed onto that very quickly niching out, and niching out, due to the usefullness of how you interacted, to simply add the bands and musicians there as well.

I suspect that the next revision that people will be looking for is a video facebook or sorts, but we already have that with skype, the market is just not there for neighbors wanting to look at other neighbors friends, and family at 7am or 11pm. SKype is used for long distance family calls, and international business calls period. Im sure some software guy uses it all day long to talk to his software friend, but those are way early adopters, and it will be a few years before that chasm is crossed.

Now onto Amazon, Amazon is where you buy books, not read them. its like Cisco getting into the phone business. If your brand is knowwhere near what you think you can sell dont sell it. Amazon isnt known for its nifty computers, thats apple, or if you want a cheap computer toshiba, but if you want an amazon computer its like buing a dominoes pizza, table and chairs, yes that what you eat the pizza on but no, nobody wants a dominoes pizza table and chair set.

Large companies in one niche:
Google - search engine
Amazon - where you buy books
ebay - the yard sale lady online
facebook - the neighboorhood gossip room
youtube - the 15 minute or less funny video clip place
Apple - the cool electronic piece of equipment place.
microsoft - the office software
netflix - the online movie place

Are all stuck doing there one niche thing on the internet. not in the history of the internet (all since the really long time of 1995) has there ever been a departure from the one place to do the one thing, and there never will be thats how technology or a displacement works.

The only thing that a large succesful displacement company can do is buy another company that succeeds in displacing something else that used to be done off-line.

Anyway, Don't listen to reporters articles when they report something goofy like company b is going to take over company b's space when they are clearly entrenched in a different niche application.... it just doesnt happen.



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